Last night dropped us one unit total, a loss we can live with. This Thursday slate in the NHL is a beautiful thing, as we have four Game 6s to both enjoy and wager on.
This is the same group of teams and players that powered a great Tuesday, and for the most part, we’re going right back to the well.
Below are shots on goal (SOG) looks, points props, and one bet on a winner.
Let’s get to the spots.
Parlay: Patrice Bergeron over 3.5 and David Perron over 2.5 SOG (+165 CZR)
This combination has been working just fine for us, and while the odds continue to dip, the best approach for us is to keep betting it.
Bergeron has hit in every single game of this series. Back in Boston facing elimination, his volume should maintain.
Then there’s David Perron, our golden goose. I will look back on Round 1 and remember a few individuals above the rest, and Perron is at the top. The man has hit in every game this series and all eight meetings against Minnesota this year.
Fresh off a 7-SOG outing, I like it to continue. He’s been involved on the power play all series, and St. Louis is getting their chances.
Charlie McAvoy point (-105 DK)
I’m not letting one down day of defensemen points deter me from going back to the strategy, it’s been a fruitful one.
The first spot I’ll deploy this approach is on the Boston end. The Bruins are back home, where they had solid scoring success in Games 3-4.
McAvoy is the top-line defensemen, and far more importantly to me, he’s a member of the top power play unit. This has been a penalty-laden series, with Boston averaging five power plays per game. Given his ice-time there, it gives me reason to pursue him for a point tonight.
McAvoy has two points so far in four games this series (he missed one game due to Covid).
Brayden Point over 2.5 SOG (-125 DK)
Here is our “trust the bounce-back” candidate of the night. Brayden Point failed to cover for us on Tuesday, getting two quick shots in the first and never being heard of again.
Prior to that game, Point had hit in three straight. In an elimination game on home ice (I wonder how many more times I will drop that phrase to justify a pick) I like Point to pick it up.
Point is one of Tampa’s most important players and fully expect a big game with their season on the line. His involvement on the power play with the Lightning averaging 5.6 power plays per game this series solidifies my confidence in him.
William Nylander over 2.5 SOG (-135 DK)
It’s juiced, but William Nylander has been automatic at this 2.5 line. Honestly when you scan the board, -135 doesn’t look too bad with how these odds have shifted since Game 1.
Nylander has covered his SOG in all five games this series. End analysis.
Tampa Bay ML (-130 DK)
Was secretly hoping for a Tampa loss on Tuesday so we could load them up here back at home for Game 6.
Andrei Vasilevsky is well-documented for his postseason heroics, and the stat that continues making the rounds is that he has never lost two straight playoff games. I believe the record there is 16-0, but do send me a handwritten letter if that number is off by a few.
This has been a fantastic series and while I think the Leafs may finally get over the hump and advance, it’s going to take seven to do so.
Parlay: Victor Hedman and Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 SOG (+179 CZR)
I’m kicking myself for not following my own advice on these two. Prime example as why the bounce-back is real. Hedman and Eriksson Ek were parlayed in Game 4 and both lost, and yes of course they both proceeded to go over in Games 5.
Hedman has now covered his shot prop in four of five this series and has 17 shot attempts in his past two games.
Eriksson Ek has hit this line in four of five as well and six of seven against the Blues this season.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 SOG (+115 DK)
Rumor has it that Jordan Kyrou gave us a miracle cover on Tuesday, pushing two quick shots on net near the end of the game to finish with the magic three. All I see is a guy that has now covered his SOG in four straight games who continues to be given to us at plus-money.
Plus-money is becoming increasingly rare, so finding an opportunity where it makes sense is a welcomed sight.
Kyrou is averaging 6.25 shot attempts per game during this streak, so let’s roll with the volume in a big game for the Blues.
Kirill Kaprizov goal (+130 DK)
I’m truly testing fate here with this pick. Kaprizov’s shots are getting so juiced and at this moment, I don’t yet have a parlay partner for him.
I bet Kirill to score a goal in Game 1, and he failed to do so. All he’s done since is pile in seven goals in four games, putting this Minnesota team on his back.
This kid is another level right now, and while I think his shots is a great look (that I may still bet later today), I think he keeps the scoring rolling in a must-win game for the Wild.
DraftKings has the best odds for this streak to continue at +130.
Jared Spurgeon point (-107 Barstool)
Barstool is the only book I’ve been able to find this, and I’m glad to see it offered somewhere. Yes, this is our second foray into defensemen points tonight, I want to continue following this for the rest of the postseason.
I will always gravitate towards defensemen on the top power play line, and that would be Spurgeon. It’s not everything, and by all means he can be involved in even-strength scoring, but it doesn’t hurt to be out there when skating a man-up.
Spurgeon has a point in three straight games.
Anze Kopitar over 2.5 SOG (-120 DK)
This is set and forget for me. The Kings have been pummeling the Oilers with shots all series, averaging 40 per game. Kopitar has hit in four straight and I will just continue following him for as long as we can.
-120 is solid opening line value, so I jumped on this immediately.
Zach Hyman over 2.5 SOG (-115 DK)
A fresh face! Hyman has been pouring on the shots recently, covering his SOG line in three of his last four. What I like seeing is that he isn’t just getting three when he hits. Hyman has 4+ shots in each of these recent games and is averaging six attempts per game in this series.
I like these odds and this hit-rate at the 2.5 line.
Adrian Kempe over 3.5 SOG (-115 DK)
I have to jump back onto the Kempe train after his nine shot performance on Tuesday. Kempe has covered his shots in all but one game this series, averaging 7.8 shot attempts per game in the process.
It’s elite volume, and isn’t juiced. As mentioned above with Kopitar, Los Angeles has been getting so many shots off, I like it to continue tonight.
Best of luck tonight! Let’s cash some bets and have ourselves a great Thursday night on the ice.